NFL Picks: Week 18
The final week of the regular season is upon us, which means it's time for a delightful mix of games that don't matter at all, games that couldn't matter more, and games that are a weird mix of both.
I hope everyone had a Happy Holidays and a great New Years! Now that we’re firmly into 2025, it is time for the final week of the NFL regular season. The stretch run of the season has been exciting, and we have multiple playoff races coming down to this final week.
Three teams are vying for the last AFC Wildcard spot, with the Denver Broncos in the driver’s seat even after a loss last week. Meanwhile, the NFC field is set except for in the NFC South, where the Buccaneers only need to win to secure the division, while the Falcons have to hope their archnemesis in New Orleans can give them an assist. And in the AFC North, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will both try to secure the division crown in their Saturday matchups against Cleveland and Cincinnati, respectively. Beyond those situations, there are further implications in the seeding order for the playoffs.
For our purposes, my record for the year currently sits at 152-56. That means that in order to finish at exactly 75% accuracy, I would have to go 16-0 this week. I have faith in my picks, but that’s a tall order. I’ll just do my best, and maybe a Week 18 miracle will happen. Regardless of the result, it’s an exciting slate to end the regular season. Be sure to stick around in the coming weeks for my Playoff Predictions and Weekly Playoff Picks. Enjoy Week 18!
Cleveland Browns (3-13) @ Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - SAT
Saturday, 1/4 - 4:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM PST
Baltimore are 20 point favorites in this game and for good reason. Cleveland has looked inept with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at QB. Baltimore should cruise to another AFC North title.
Ravens win 31-13.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - SAT
Saturday, 1/4 - 8:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM PST
The Steelers are on a big of a skid and have lost control of the AFC North. They will want to find a way to win the division on Saturday, but at least can be satisfied with their playoff spot. Cincinnati is still fighting for their playoff lives, and I expect them to pull out all the stops for a win before turning their hopes over to Carson Wentz on Sunday.
Bengals win 26-21.
Chicago Bears (4-12) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
A Packers win would give them a chance of climbing up to the six seed in the playoffs. A Bears win would be their first since Week 6.
Packers win 34-21.
New York Giants (3-13) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Eagles have secured the two seed in the NFC, and Saquon Barkley will unfortunately not get his chance at history on Sunday. The only real implications in this game are for the Giants’ draft spot. Can Drew Lock deliver another vintage performance and win against Giants fans’ wills?
Eagles win 24-13.
Washington Commanders (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Cowboys have been eliminated for a few weeks now but have enjoyed playing spoiler, including in a win over the Commanders just six weeks ago. Washington hasn’t lost since, but does Dallas have one last surprise in them this season?
Cowboys win 28-25.
New Orleans Saints (5-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Buccaneers have to win. The Saints don’t really want to win (and not just to screw over the Falcons). Sorry Falcons fans (me), the writing is on the wall for this one, and it says that Baker Mayfield has done it again.
Buccaneers win 41-20.
Carolina Panthers (4-12) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Atlanta can secure their first winning since 2017 with a win over the Panthers, but it won’t mean much to fans without an accompanying Tampa Bay loss. The Panthers may be interested in derailing their plans entirely.
Falcons win 27-23.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Thanks to the Colts disastrous loss to the Giants, this is simply a game that is being played. And it is being played without Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson. Don’t expect much screen time for this one on RedZone.
Colts win 29-14.
Houston Texans (9-7) @ Tennessee Titans (3-13)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Between C.J. Stroud’s sophomore slump, an injury bug, and other issues, the Texans sadly just do not look like a legitimate threat in the AFC. Picking up a win against the Titans is necessary and expected as they try to turn around their fortunes in the playoffs.
Texans win 24-10.
Buffalo Bills (13-3) @ New England Patriots (3-13)
Sunday, 1/5 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Will the Patriots be the next team to win away the #1 Overall Pick? With Josh Allen only playing a couple of series on Sunday, Drake Maye could lead New England to a Week 18 win and potentially impact their chances of winning the Travis Hunter sweepstakes among the team that do not need a QB.
Patriots win 27-20.
Miami Dolphins (8-8) @ New York Jets (4-12)
Sunday, 1/5 - 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
The Dolphins are still alive for the postseason, but their chances take a big hit without Tua Tagovailoa. The perfect end to the Jets’ sad and comical season would be a win to eliminate a division rival and impact their draft positioning.
Jets win 23-20.
San Francisco 49ers (6-10) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
Sunday, 1/5 - 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
Both of these teams came up short in the exciting NFC West race this year and will play for pride in the afternoon slate.
49ers win 28-17.
Seattle Seahawks (9-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Sunday, 1/5 - 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
Unfortunately for Seattle and neutral viewers, the Seahawks were eliminated due to a tiebreaker scenario last Sunday when the Commanders beat the Falcons. The Rams have secured the division and will rest players in this matchup that almost had a division title on the line.
Seahawks win 24-16.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
Sunday, 1/5 - 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
The Chargers are another team that has secured their spot and is playing for playoff position. The Raiders, like the Giants, have hurt their draft positioning with a late season win, and their fans who are dreaming of a new QB will hope that they don’t do it again.
Chargers win 30-16.
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) @ Denver Broncos (9-7)
Sunday, 1/5 - 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
This could not have worked out better for Denver. After losing two crucial games in a row to teams they are competing for playoff positioning with, Denver draws the Chiefs in Week 18 needing a win to make the postseason. Usually a death sentence, these Week 18 Chiefs have nothing to play for and will send out Carson Wentz and his merry band of backups to face the Broncos. Only needing one win from their last three games to make the playoffs, losing this game would be an unacceptable disaster for Denver. The crazy thing is, I think they will.
Chiefs win 26-24.
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) @ Detroit Lions (14-2)
Sunday, 1/5 - 8:20 PM EST / 5:20 PM PST
There is so much I could say about this game. Two historically down-on-their-luck franchises having historic seasons battling for the division title in the final game of the regular season. One will finish 15-2 and enjoy homefield advantage for the entire NFC playoffs. The other will fall to 14-3 and go on the road for their first playoff game. The Lions have had a well-chronicled magical season. In a sick blow to Lions fans, the Vikings are poised to snatch the title of “most miraculous regular season” right from under their nose. A loss on Sunday and a subsequent trip to Tampa Bay to face a Bucs team that already beat the Lions could potentially end this seeming season of destiny a few weeks early.
Vikings win 27-23.