NFL Picks: Week 11
Week 11 is bursting at the seams with rivalry games and big playoff implications. It's going to be an exciting one, and we're going to try to predict it.
After a high-flying 14-1 Week 9, I came back down to earth in Week 10, going 9-5. That brings my total record since I switched formats in Week 4 to 74-30. Anything less than 10 wins a week is considered a loss here at Afternoon Analytics as we move towards a goal of 150 wins on the season (since we switched to this format), so we’re going to put last week in the rearview mirror and move on to Week 11, which offers plenty of very enticing games.
Thursday Night Football kicks us off with a huge NFC East game between Washington and Philadelphia. Later on Sunday, we’re treated to divisional games between the Packers and Bears, Ravens and Steelers, and Seahawks and 49ers, along with the rivalry between Kansas City and Buffalo, with the Bills looking to hand the Chiefs their first loss. On Sunday Night, we get a big game between the Bengals and Chargers, with Cincinnati desperate for a win. On Monday Night Football… well let’s not talk about the Texas derby on Monday. I’m going to keep the write-ups very short this week, because this week isn’t about the flair. It’s about wins. (I hope).
Teams on BYE: Arizona Cardinals (6-4), Carolina Panthers (3-7), New York Giants (2-8), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
Washington Commanders (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
Thursday, 11/14 8:15 PM EST / 5:15 PM PST
Both of these teams are playing great football, but Philly has the veteran team, the better form, and is at home. I’ll take the Birds with a game winning field goal in what is hopefully one of the best games of the year.
Eagles win 34-31.
Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-5)
Sunday, 11/17 - 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Bears have coaching controversies and a QB controversy. The Packers are one of the best teams in the league and coming off rest. Their dominance of Chicago should continue.
Packers win 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) @ Detroit Lions (8-1)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Jaguars allowed zero touchdowns and lost last week. Detroit through five interceptions and won. Both of these teams are inevitable.
Lions win 42-14.
Minnesota Vikings (7-2) @ Tennessee Titans (2-7)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Minnesota scored zero touch… we don’t need to do this again. Minnesota is the better team by far.
Vikings win 21-9.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) @ Miami Dolphins (3-6)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
Tyreek Hill is catching touchdowns again, and the Raiders might be starting Desmond Ridder. Both of those developments can likely result in a lot of points for Miami.
Dolphins win 30-13.
Los Angeles Rams (4-5) @ New England Patriots (3-7)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Rams defense has been more impressive than expected, and should be able to capitalize on Drake Maye, who has been good but also prone to a turnover or two. The Rams offense needs to get back into first gear.
Rams win 24-17.
Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
The Saints just won a game in which they were outplayed thanks to mistakes by Atlanta and a lot of missed field goals. Usually, that’s a recipe for regression but not when Cleveland comes to town.
Saints win 23-15.
Indianapolis Colts (4-6) @ New York Jets (3-7)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
If I told you before the season the Colts would have the better record in this game, you would probably have thought that their season was going great. In actuality, they just went back to Anthony Richardson after benching him two weeks ago. That’s how it’s going for both these teams. I wish I would never pick the Jets to win again. I was very, very tempted to pick a tie. And yet, here we are again.
Jets win 26-20.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Sunday, 11/17 1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST
I hate picking AFC North games. Especially with the Steelers involved. The Ravens are the better team, but I’ll take Pittsburgh in their first divisional game of the year. They’re at home, they seem to have Baltimore’s number, and, most of all, these games are impossible to predict.
Steelers win 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons (6-4) @ Denver Broncos (5-5)
Sunday, 11/17 4:05 PM EST / 1:05 PM PST
The Broncos and Falcons both experienced frustrating divisional losses last week. This game is a close one for me, and I could see it going either way. So, as a professional and objective tiebreaker, I’m going to pick the team I want to win.
Falcons win 23-21.
Seattle Seahawks (4-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
Sunday, 11/17 4:05 PM EST / 1:05 PM PST
Christian McCaffrey is back.
49ers win 30-21.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) @ Buffalo Bills (8-2)
Sunday, 11/10 4:25 PM EST / 1:25 PM PST
THE CHIEFS NEVER LOSE. I do not know how they do it. It’s remarkable. I can never in good conscious pick against them again. They are simply incapable of not winning a game, no matter the circumstances, and now they’re facing Buffalo in the game of the year. Give me Josh Allen.
Bills win 30-28.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) - SNF
Sunday, 11/17 8:20 PM EST / 8:15 PM PST
No disrespect to the Chargers, whose turnaround I am loving. But Cincinnati needs this win, and I think they will play with a desperation that reflects that. I’m counting on Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to carry this team and keep their season alive. LA’s defense is better than Baltimore’s, but I don’t think their offense will be able to keep up if this game turns into a track meet.
Bengals win 28-24.
Houston Texans (6-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-6) - MNF
Monday, 11/11 8:15 PM EST / 5:15 PM PST
Can we flex this game? Please? OK, I guess we can’t. But yikes. These two teams are going through rough patches right now both due to form and injuries. Dallas has it worse on the injury front, and Nico Collins might finally be back this week, which gives Houston the edge. At least the Sun won’t be a factor.
Texans win 27-14.